Cisco Outage Predictor

Building self-learning neural networks that ingest network telemetry, historical alarms, and incidents to predict outages across diverse network environments.

A.I. & Telemetry

Predictive Outage Intelligence

Noisy Atom is collaborating with Cisco to deliver an autonomous, self-learning network monitoring agent. By processing massive streams of real-time telemetry (CPU load, latency, packet loss, availability) and correlating them with historical alarm/incident databases, the platform builds high-accuracy predictions of impending system outages.

PyTorchApache KafkaLSTM CellsCelery Queue

Project Metrics

91.2%
Prediction Accuracy
< 42s
Ingest-to-Prediction
"By moving from reactive alert responses to proactive, probability-based outages, we help Cisco engineers mitigate link failures minutes before they cascade."

Under the Hood: Network Asset Modeling

Technical Deep Dive

Ingestion & Preprocessing

Real-time telemetry streams from routers and switches represent continuous time-series data. In contrast, historical incident reports and alarms are asynchronous discrete events. Noisy Atom implemented a sliding-window preprocessor. Telemetry events are aligned on a common epoch grid, converting unstructured incidents into dense feature vectors containing alert counts, severity levels, and gradient trends over a 15-minute history block.

Continuous Learning Loop

A primary challenge of network environments is drift: models trained on campus configurations fail on data center topologies. Our solution leverages Cisco's sandboxed testing clusters. Active network events continuously feed a local loss evaluation node. If a newly adjusted model outperforms the baseline production model on validation assets over a 24-hour cycle, the server swaps weight matrices seamlessly without dropping active prediction requests.

System Architecture

Telemetry & Log Ingestion Pipeline

Telemetry streams are aggregated from distributed network assets, queued dynamically via Apache Kafka, and processed through a Celery worker pool to extract clean sequence events.

Network Assets RT-01 Switches & Routers 100Gbps Telemetry SNMP Alarms Syslogs & Incidents KAFKA Event Broker Bus Data Pipeline Celery Pool Feature Vector (X_t)
Deep Learning Model

Recurrent LSTM Neural Network

Standard feed-forward neural networks struggle with temporal relationships (e.g. alert A occurring 15-20 minutes before failure B). To address this, Noisy Atom implemented an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network architecture.

An LSTM maintains an internal memory state C_t that carries critical historical dependencies over time. Using forget, input, and output gates, the neural network learns which incoming telemetry spikes represent temporary noise and which ones denote warning signs of an impending asset outage.

Self-Learning Feedback Loop

When outages occur, the actual event is correlated with the system's previous prediction. If the model predicted a low probability, the backpropagation loss is used to adjust weights. The network continuously updates its models, prioritizing configurations with higher precision. Models 'learn' from a live customers network, meaning the model is trained on that specific customers network and can be fine tuned for higher accuracy.

Input: Telemetry (X_t) Cell Memory State (C_t) Forget Input Output Hidden State (h_t) Outage Prob: P(Outage) Sigmoid Threshold: 0.85 Self-Learning Backprop Loss
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